L.A. May be About to Elect a Hispanic Mayor

Political Wire reports on a SurveyUSA poll that gives Antonio Villaraigosa a 17 point lead over the incumbent mayor James K. Hahn in the upcoming mayoral primary in L.A. This is a rematch of the 2001 L.A. mayoral race. Villaraigosa's strength is among Hispanics, young voters and liberals. Former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg is the choice of Republicans and Conservatives, but in L.A., that does not provide much in terms of ballot box strength.

Aside from the historic significance of Villaraigosa's election, should it occur, there are two things to watch in this race. First, Hahn won in 2001 largely on the strength of the black vote. The black vote is no longer in Hahn's camp due to a combination of police corruption cases, allegations of police brutality and Hahn's support of the ouster of police chief Bernard Parks, who is black (ironically, Parks is now a candidate for mayor and is picking up about 57% of the black vote that is so crucial to Hahn). Demographic changes have also diminished the impact of the black vote and increased that of the Hispanic vote overall in L.A. This means that this will be the first opportunity for Hispanic voters in L.A. to show their political ascendancy.

Second, if Villaraigosa wins, he will quickly be crowned as a leading Democrat to run against Governor Schwarzenegger in 2006. This will then test Hispanic political ascendancy statewide (Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamente's silly and somnambulic "vote no on recall, but yes for me" campaign does not count).

Now all that is needed is a Hispanic conservative to add to the mix. Election Day is March 8th.