One more "what does this mean" thing

The Schwarzenegger re-election victory in California may be signal to Republicans that California could be in play for the 2008 presidential election. I am not entirely convinced of that (after all, McClintock, the conservative candidate for lt. governor, had a good showing but still lost and Feinstein won another landslide), but if California could be added to the potential column for Republicans, this would be a major shake-up in electoral college math. Republicans may need this shake-up in view of the likely uphill challenges in Missouri, Ohio and perhaps even Colorado.

Here's the problem for Republicans: the only candidates that could put California in play are the candidates that are likely to be the most unappealable to conservative primary voters, especially in the South. Those candidates are Giuliani and McCain.

Giuliani and McCain will undoubtedly seize on the California potential (and in the case of Giuliani in particular, the New York potential as well) as an additional rationale for their candidacies during the primaries. Each of them could stake out this ground now much the same way George Bush staked out the "Compassionate Conservative" ground soon after the 1998 elections. All other candidates would then have to deal with the "California question" or show how their candidacies will have the broad appeal necessary to win the now-difficult states of Missouri and Ohio and perhaps Colorado.

UPDATE: John McIntyre of RealClearPolitics sees a McCain/Pawlenty ticket, in part based on the 2006 midterm results and the location of the 2008 GOP convention (Minneapolis-St. Paul).